Spatial analysis of desertification-sensitive areas in arid conditions based on modified MEDALUS approach and geospatial techniques

Desertification is one of the greatest environmental issues affecting sustainable development and food security in arid and semi-arid regions. Due to the dry conditions and dependence on groundwater as the main irrigation source, the West El-Minya region of Egypt is particularly susceptible to the increasing hazards of desertification. This research study aims to evaluate and map the environmentally sensitive areas (ESAs) to desertification in this study region using the modified Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use Model (MEDALUS) approach supported by sophisticated geospatial techniques. The model was utilized as a case study in the West El-Minya region of Egypt, covering an area of 447.12 km2 (44712.54 ha). The five thematic quality indices of soil (SQI), geomorphology (GQI), climate (CQI), vegetation (VQI), and management (MQI) were characterized through the analysis of satellite images, climatic data, field observations, and soil samples taken from 150 soil profiles. All these indices were integrated in a geographical information system (GIS) framework for ESAs in relation to desertification. According to the model, the findings indicated that the whole area (100%) is within the Critical type of ESA, with no area being assessed as the "Non-Affected"or "Fragile"or "Potential"type. A total of 84.79% (37911.99 ha) of the study area is classified as Critical sub-type 2, while 12.74% (5698.51 ha) and 2.46% (1102.04 ha) are classified as sub-type 3 and sub-type 1, respectively. This is mainly due to the arid climatic conditions and very low vegetation cover, with a strongly negative impact on the study area. The results of the study confirm the urgent need to develop integrated policies for managing natural resources. This study illustrates an innovative application of the MEDALUS model with the addition of geomorphological parameters and applies it in an under-researched area of Egypt. It also presents an explicit spatial assessment that can be utilized to support policy decision-making for land degradation mitigation and sustainable land management. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.