MoSER: Sustainable Development Model for the Russian Macroregion

The paper provides a brief introduction to the new economic model of the Russian macroregion called the model of sustainable development of the Russian economy. It is a regional sustainable development model that incorporates the main characteristics of the BRICS economy to analyze the impact of monetary policy measures and forecasting. The model of sustainable development is built on the logic of neo-Keynesian models with real and nominal rigidity. It also considers the structure of a small open economy, external (relative to the region) monetary conditions, and other factors necessary to consider the features of the BRICS economy. The model is evaluated using Bayesian methods using the data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Energy Information Administration, the Federal Reserve Economic Data, the Food and Agriculture Organization based on international statistics, information from the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat), and the Bank of Russia for Q1 2009–Q4 2020. In addition to describing the properties of the model, the authors show the model’s potential by decomposing historic and forecast data. The model allows analyzing changes in the indicators of the BRICS economy as a whole and a separate macroregion and therefore, is a valuable tool for macroeconomic analysis. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.