Assessing the Impact of Demographic Growth on the Educational Infrastructure for Sustainable Regional Development: Forecasting Demand for Preschool and Primary School Enrollment in Kazakhstan

Demographic growth in Kazakhstan over the past decades has had a significant impact on the entire education system, particularly at the preschool and primary levels. High birth rates have led to an increasing number of children requiring enrollment in kindergartens and first-grade classes. This often results in a shortage of available places, increased workload for teaching staff, and a decline in the quality of educational services. This paper examines the application of Business Intelligence (BI) tools and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for forecasting potential shortages of educational places and identifying regional priorities in infrastructure development. A predictive model is presented, based on birth rate indicators and age cohorts, which enables the estimation of future demand for preschool and primary school capacity across the regions of Kazakhstan. The study highlights the urgent need for proactive planning and targeted investment to prevent critical shortages and to ensure equitable access to quality education. The findings can serve as a foundation for the development of effective public education policies and support the formulation of regional strategies that reflect current demographic trends. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.