Uncertainty in assessing the economic efficiency of investment projects for coal mining enterprises; Неопределенность при оценке экономической эффективности инвестиционных проектов для предприятий угольной промышленности

In a highly competitive and unstable modern economy, the assessment of economic efficiency of investment projects is an important task, especially for enterprises in the coal industry, which face a lot of uncertainty factors. This paper is devoted to the analysis of existing methodological approaches to accounting for uncertainty and risks in the assessment of real investments in the coal industry. The paper investigates the key criteria of economic efficiency, such as payback period, internal rate of return, investment risks and project profitability. The authors emphasize the need to take into account the uncertainty caused by both external (macroeconomic) factors and internal changes at the enterprise level. They apply economic and mathematical methods, including probability theory, interval analysis, methods of sensitivity analysis and decision trees, which allow modeling various scenarios and assessing their impact on project efficiency. In addition, the paper proposes a conceptual model that combines discrete and continuous methods of economic efficiency assessment, which allows for a more accurate consideration of risks and uncertainties. The model is focused on practical application for managers and investors in the coal industry, helping them to make informed decisions and reduce the risks of unsuccessful investments. Thus, the presented research makes a significant contribution to the development of investment project evaluation methodology and helps to improve investment management processes under uncertainty, which ultimately contributes to the sustainable development of the coal industry and enhances its competitiveness. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.