Approximate Solutions of the RSIR Model of COVID-19 Pandemic

The Reduced SIR (RSIR) model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equation with retarded time argument is developed. An algorithm aimed to forecast the COVID-19 pandemic development by approximate solution of RSIR model is proposed. The input data for this algorithm are the cumulative numbers of infected people on three dates (e.g., today, a week ago, and two weeks ago). © 2021, IFIP International Federation for Information Processing.

Авторы
Pen’Kov F.M. 1 , Derbov V.L. 2 , Chuluunbaatar G. 4, 3 , Gusev A.A. 3, 5 , Vinitsky S.I. 3, 4 , Góźdź M. 6 , Krassovitskiy P.M. 7
Сборник материалов конференции
IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology
Издательство
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Язык
Английский
Страницы
53-64
Статус
Опубликовано
DOI
10.1007/978-3-030-86582-5_6
Том
616 IFIP
Год
2021
Организации
  • 1 Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan
  • 2 N.G. Chernyshevsky Saratov National Research State University, Saratov, 410012, Russian Federation
  • 3 Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna, Russian Federation
  • 4 Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya, Moscow, 117198, Russian Federation
  • 5 Dubna State University, Dubna, Russian Federation
  • 6 Institute of Computer Science, University of Maria Curie-Skłodowska, Lublin, Poland
  • 7 Institute of Nuclear Physics, Almaty, 050032, Kazakhstan
Ключевые слова
First-order ordinary differential equation with retarded time argument; Forecast the COVID-19 pandemic; Reduced SIR model
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